Football Analyst

After an eighth defeat in 11 games against Notts County on Tuesday, Fabio Liverani is quickly running out of games to save Leyton Orient from what seems an inevitable relegation. The O’s lost their ninth home game of the season to a Balint Bajner first half strike and travel to 7th placed Chesterfield on Saturday looking to start on the road to League 1 safety. The Spireites beat the O’s on the opening day of the season 2-1 with the home fans unaware of the turmoil that would surround their club in the coming months.

Chesterfield come off the back of a 2-0 home defeat to Preston on Tuesday but only sit outside the play off places on goal difference to Sheffield United but have played two more games than the Blades. Chesterfield, who are looking for back to back promotions after getting promoted from League Two as champions last season suffered a blow on deadline day losing Eoin Doyle to Cardiff. Reports suggest that Cardiff paid around a £1 million for the 26 year old forward who was in his most prolific spell of his career. Doyle has 21 league goals to his name, exactly 50% of Chesterfield’s total League 1 goals. A major blow for the Spireites who’s next top scorer is Sam Clucas on 5 goals.

Leyton Orient will happier to play away from home as 17 of their 26 league points have come away from Brisbane Road where they have suffered inconsistencies from match day 1. Worryingly for the East London side is their form in their last 10 league matches picking up just 7 points from a possible 30 which has seen them prop up the division and 6 points adrift from Coventry in 20th. Orient don’t have a great record against the top 7, winning only 1 of the 8 games played, 3-1 away at Oldham. Record: P8 Won 1, Drew 4, Lost 3. Orient’s last triumphed away 3-0 at Yeovil just after Christmas with this being their only win in 9 on the road in all competitions, losing 7 of them which does not bode well.

The first goal will be crucial on Saturday as it is in every match but even more when looking at records when scored and conceded first goal in a game.

Chestefield have won 10 of their 11 games when scored first – 31 of their 42 points come when they have scored first goal.

Orient have won only 1 of 15 games when conceded first – Won 1, Drew 2, Lost 13. The win came in August away at Oldham.

O’s boss,Liverani, stated that his side “must start again” after defeat on Tuesday but having lost 6 of the 9 games he has been in charge, he does not fill O’s fans with confidence especially with his team selection and tactics in recent weeks. The decision to start without Dean Cox or Ryan Hedges and bringing on Shaun Batt for Chris Dagnall which was received by boos for home fans. Dagnall who is top scorer for the O’s with 7 league goals has netted 4 of the last 10 that his side have scored but compare that to the departed Eoin Doyle who netted 7 in his first 8 matches, Dagnall’s strike rate will not be enough to keep Orient up.

Chesterfield have picked up 25 of their 42 points at home with 7 wins at the B2Net stadium and like to score the majority of their goals in the second half (24/42) which could be a problem for Orient. The O’s have struggled in the second half of matches conceding 27 of their 44 in the second half which could be pivotal to the result of the upcoming clash. Chesterfield have only lost 1 of their 7 games played against the bottom 6, winning 3 and drawing 3 and will be looking for Cadan Lavery and Mani Dieseruvwe to fill the goal void left by Doye after recently signing from Sheffield Wednesday.

Prediction: Chesterfield will be looking to bounce back from defeat to Preston and jump into the play off places while Orient will be hoping for an upturn in fortune so a score draw in the offering: Chestefield 1-1 Orient

Leyton Orient dropped further into relegation danger as Scunthorpe became the 8th team to leave Brisbane Road with all three points. Liam O’Neil put the Iron ahead as his curling shot beat O’s keeper, Gary Woods, before Gary McShefferey’s cross was flapped into his own net by Woods. Tom Hopper put Scunthorpe 3 nil in front as he converted Paddy Madden’s cross, Darius Henderson pulled back with a penalty after Jordan Clarke had hauled down the front man but Hopper grabbed his second 10 minutes from the end to pull the Iron 5 points clear of the drop.

Orient who hadn’t won in 2015 made four changes with Neil Eardley, Shane Lowry, Ryan Hedges and David Mooney dropping to the bench with Elliot Omosuzi, Mathieu Baudry, Bradley Pritchard and Gianvito Plasmati coming into the starting 11. Scunthorpe made only one change from their 1-1 draw with MK Dons in midweek with Gary McSheffrey coming in for Josh Murphy.

Orient who needed a fast start with confidence low after recent games could have taken a 3rd minute lead when Plasmati and Dagnall linked up nicely to set the Scot up but his shot squirmed under Luke Daniels and onto the post. The Iron appeared to set their stall out early with a 4-1-4-1 formation looking to outnumbered the O’s in the middle of the park and it worked. Vincelot and Lundstram could not cope with the extra man in midfield losing the battle convincingly. It was the home side that the better opening 10 minutes with Nathan Clarke having a header easily saved whilst Dagnall fired a shot straight at Daniels. But just as every Orient fan knew it was inevitable that Scunny would take the lead and they did after 13 minutes. A corner wasn’t cleared from the Orient right with the ball falling to left back Marcus Williams who’s volley deflected off Bradley Pricthard to Liam O’Neil who curled over Woods and in.

The ninth time Orient had conceded first at home with Orient losing 8 of these games, in fact Orient have fell behind 15 times this season and managed only 5 points from 45. It was a long back for Orient, Cox had a shot fizz past the post but Orient lacked battle, grit and determination. Scunthorpe were by far the better side winning ever battle on the pitch. They duly doubled their lead when McSheffrey played a 1-2 with Bishop, the ex Birmingham winger crossed into the center where Gary Woods flapped at the ball, palming into his own net. Scunthorpe were brimming with confidence and could see the Orient heads drop after the second goal.

Luke Daniels nearly had a moment of madness when Dagnall was played through the recent signing from West Brom came out of his box and got just about got enough on the ball to prevent Dagnall getting a shot away. The loose ball fell to Bradley Pricthard but the ex Charlton man took too long over the shot seeing it deflected for a corner. The O’s struggled all areas with miss passes aplenty and mistakes from every player.

Plasmati was replaced by Darius Henderson at half time with the Italian doing nothing to try and improve the relationship with certain groups of fans. But a carbon copy of the last three home matches and last weeks defeat to Colchester, Orient conceded in the first minutes of the second half. The home side lost the ball in midfield with Isiah Osbourne picking out Madden in the right channel after Sawyer had been caught up field. Madden made his way into the box, crossing to the back post where an unmarked Tom Hopper slid in to add to the Iron’s advantage. Scunthorpe could have added a fourth when Hopper flicked O’Neil’s corner into Woods’s arms with the O’s still looking shaky at set pieces.

Orient were beginning to hit the ball to Henderson with frontman looking to lay off to Dagnall, Cox and Pritchard. Henderson had a volley comfortably saved from outside the area but Scunthorpe looked confident in maintaining the lead and looked dangerous on the break through Hopper, McSheffrey and Madden. Orient were giving a very slim lifeline when Jordan Clarke hauled down Henderson in the box with the Orient forward picking himself up to smash home the penalty.

Ryan Hedges was introduced in place of Bradley Pricthard with main question baffling some fans to why didn’t the on loan Swansea winger start the game after appearing to not do much wrong at Colchester last week. Hedges remains one of only a couple of players in the squad who have the ability to take on a man when in possession. After the goal Orient pushed for a second with not much success, Lundstram departed for Mooney with O’s reverting to a 4-1-3-2 formation. But all Scunthorpe needed to do was press Orient once more to wrap the game up and they did through Hopper. O’Neil played Hopper in who wasn’t picked up by either center half and slotted home past the out rushing Woods.

The fourth goal saw a mass exodus of Orient fans with rest looking on wondering what has happened in the months since 26th May. Far from the team, spirit which last season was built on, the unity of the team appears no where to be seen with a team full of individuals rather than a just a team. Cox had a volley saved by Daniels after Henderson’s knock on but Scunthorpe won’t have many easier away trips all year.

Post match Liverani slammed his players with stating that a lot of things are going to change with ‘no midweek days off, double training sessions’ but the one important point is: is there enough time to get out of this mess? On the performance yesterday Orient looked doomed, no battle, togetherness or unity. The worst home record out of the top four English divisions picking up just 9 points from 52, problems remain all over the pitch. Orient don’t have a strong enough midfield at the moment so it still baffles me why not change to a 3 at some point. At Colchester and yesterday Orient lost the middle of midfield for large parts of the game but until players want to play for the badge and the fans; Orient will remain in this mess.

“The game showed that our ambitions need to be to fight until May and avoid relegation. Last season is the past and is forgotten, this season is a battle” were the words of Orient boss Fabio Liverani after his sides 2-0 defeat in the A12 derby with Colchester last weekend.

The O’s sit 22nd, 3 points from safety at the bottom of League 1 and host fellow strugglers Scunthorpe United to Brisbane Road on Saturday. The Iron lie 17th with 30 points from 24 games but unlike all the teams around them they have three games in hand due to progression in Cup competitions. Another week in E10 saw another departure of Mauro Milanese as sporting director with rumours rife that Liverani and himself had a disagreement about the potential loan move of Mathieu Baudry to Peterborough. Milanese appeared to agree to the deal but Liverani wasn’t on the same page which could have resulted in Milanese leaving.

Scunthorpe arrive in E10 in relative good form with only 2 defeats in their last 14 both away defeats to Bristol City and Chesterfield. The Iron have improved since the start of November picking up 18 of their 30 points and have similar home and away records picking up 14 at home whilst 16 away. Their away form has been good after losing 4 of their first 5 matches while being unbeaten in the next 7: winning 4 and drawing 3. Scunthorpe will be looking to exploit Orient poor home record which sees the East London club with the joint worst home record in the top 4 leagues in England with just 9 points from 12 matches.

The O’s are well and truly in a relegation scrap with home truths set out from Liverani after last week’s defeat to Colchester. With games running, realistically with Swindon, Sheffield United and MK Dons as the last three games, Orient will want their safety confirmed before these. If 50 points is enough for safety, the O’s need to pick up 24 points from 17 matches which could be a tall ask for a team that only has 2 wins in 9 matches against Crawley and Yeovil. Over the last 5 seasons  the average points to survive is 48 with the highest points to stay up in 2009/2010 with Hartlepool on 50 points while lowest would have been 44 in 2011/2012.

Liverani needs to address problem areas which have been present throughout the season: defending from set pieces, concentration and creativity. Concentration at key points in matches has been a consistent problem throughout with 18 out of 39 goals conceded in either first 10, last 10 or 10 minutes around half time with 25 of those goals conceded in the second half. Orient have struggled with set pieces all season not helped by a unsettled back 4 but in a game of small margins defending of set pieces can result in winning games.

The O’s back line will need to be aware of Iron front man Paddy Madden who was rumored to be joining the O’s last January but chose Scunny ahead of the E10 club. Madden has hit 10 of the Iron’s 33 goals this term and with a shaky defence he could net at Brisbane Road. Orient will look to continue with new signings Neil Eardley and Ryan Hedges but Orient need results quickly if they are to climb out of their current situation.

The O’s beat the Iron 2-1 away in September with Scott Cuthbert and Jobi McAnuff grabbing the goals for Orient. But Orient have only won 2 out of their last 15 meetings with Scunthorpe losing their last home games against the Iron.

Prediction: Orient to concede first to a Paddy Madden strike but will battle back to snatch a 2-1 victory with Plasmati grabbing the winner.

Gareth Evans strike 30 seconds after half time moves Fleetwood up to ninth while Orient still languish in 20th. After back to back wins over Christmas, Orient looked to start 2015 as they ended it but straight from the restart to the second half, Evans was played through and calmly slotted home to give the Cod Army all three points.

Fabio Liverani made two changes to the side that beat Yeovil 3-0 last time out welcoming back Andrea Dossena and David Mooney for Gary Sawyer and Kevin Lisbie whilst new loan signing John Lundstram was on the bench. Fleetwood remained unchanged from their 2-2 draw last week at home to Swindon.

With recent victories over Crawley and Yeovil, Orient looked for a confident display to move them further away from the relegation zone but that was clearly not the case as the game started. Orient were sluggish and lethargic in the opening stages standing off the Fleetwood when they were in possession. Only two changes were made to the team from Yeovil but Orient seemed a million miles away from the football they played in Cornwall 12 days ago. The home side were losing nearly every second ball in the middle of the park with the distance between midfield and attack becoming a worry. Gareth Evans had the first opportunity for the away side blazing over from outside the area after faint handball appeals from the Cod Army.

The away side continued to be the dominant side having a lot of joy down their right with Andrea Dossena continually having positional issues. After a goalmouth scramble with Orient struggling to clear the ball, Dobbie tried to chip Woods but the Orient keeper saved easily. With the crowd becoming restless with the lack of battle from their side, Fleetwood saw their opportunity to strike and went agonizingly close to opening the scoring. Evans made a break down the left, crossed to Dobbie at the back post who evaded Dossena but saw his volley clip the bar after striking into the ground. Orient tried to up the tempo and maintain possession with Dagnall forcing Maxwell into a smart save after good link up from Mooney and Vincelot.

Josh Wright continued in midfield after signing till the end of the season in midweek and saw his half volley rise over the bar from a cleared Omosuzi cross.  Stephen Dobbie went close for Fleetwood but his near post shot went just wide for the away side. Orient still struggled going forward with the creative spark missing which has been seen in glimpses in recent weeks. The Cod Army saw where the weaknesses were and Jamie Proctor should have put them ahead 3 minutes from the break after getting behind Dossena but saw his shot smothered by Woods. Orient top scorer was looking to add to his 3 goals in two games and nearly did just that when his run down the left saw his shot clip the far post after Maxwell get an important touch.

Josh Wright was replaced by Lundstram at half time much to the fans surprise with the former Millwall midfielder one of the better performers in the first half. Before most fans were in their seats, Fleetwood took the lead. A long ball forward from right back McLaughlin was flicked on by Proctor to the onrushing Evans who received the ball in acres of space in the Orient defence and clamly slotted home. The third time in three home matches where Orient have conceded a goal in the first ten minutes of either half. Orient appeared to change system from 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1 with Lundstram and Pricthard holding with Cox (right), Vincelot (left) and Mooney just behind Dagnall.

Orient were still struggling winning the second ball against their counterparts but Mooney should have done better after Dagnall found his strike partner on the edge of the box. The home side played a number of balls looking for Dagnall and Lisbie throughout the match but Roberts and Jordan cleaned up nearly every ball. Dean Cox was replaced by Kevin Lisbie which didn’t go down to well with the home crowd but was later announced that he was struggling with a thigh injury.

It was hard to pick up the Orient formation at times in the second half but Vincelot, Lundstram, Dagnall and Lisbie were trying their best to push their side on to equalize. Lisbie did give the home side more of a presence in attack looking to hold the ball up. David Mooney volleyed over on 70 minutes before Lisbie missed the best chance for the hosts to level. Dossena nicked the ball on the left and whipped in a cross for Lisbie but the veteran striker got his feet mixed up and his effort looped over the bar from 4 yards out.

Orient continued to press with Mooney having a shot brilliantly blocked on the edge of the box. Gianvito Plasmati returned from injury replacing David Mooney seeing the Orient revert to their third formation of the day in 4-3-3. While Steven Schumacher and Tyler Hornby-Forbes were introduced seeing Fleetwood settle for the draw going 5-4-1 looking to see the game out. Plasmati headed over from a Pricthard cross before the contentious decision of the match. Pricthard nipped the ball past Martin Crainey on the left with the referee blowing for a foul with the only decision of whether it happened in the penalty area. It was awarded just outside which incensed Liverani who was sent off for his protest, replays after the match highlighted the offence occurred just inside.

The Cod army saw the remaining minutes out to gain all three points with Orient feeling aggrieved with the penalty decision but ultimately Orient were not good enough in the game to get a result. Fleetwood move to ninth just 2 points from the play off places but the league remains close. With Orient in 20th outside the relegation zone on goal difference on 25 points they are only 11 points from the play off places. If and a big if Orient pick up form they will climb the table quickly but with results being like a roller coaster ride, anything can happen. Lundstram is a good signing at this level but Orient need to build with a new center half and all season they having been crying out for a right midfielder. Some pace in the team would help the man in possession with an option on the break and could be integral to an improvement in Orient’s form.